The poll numbers aren't particularly good, given where Democrats thought they'd be a week after Labor Day. The national polls show McCain either tied or slightly ahead of Obama, and the averages are creeping toward the red zone. Digby catches the zeitgeist:
This is a somewhat surprising development to those of us who had thought this race couldn't be lost because of the political fundamentals: a terribly unpopular Republican president, a Republican party in disgrace, a failing economy, a useless expensive war and an elderly, warmongering candidate from a bygone era. It was hard for me to see how even the Democrats could lose an election under those circumstances, even if they ran an inanimate object with a piece of algae as a running mate. But the built in advantage has disappeared. The race is back at parity, and it's a letdown, particularly after all the months of excited talk about expanding the map, landslide and realignment etc. The race can certainly still be won, but the playing field is different than most observers expected.
Sure, it's too early to panic but the ever-important media narrative is beginning to settle in: Palin changed the game, conservatives are coming home, McCain is more popular than Bush. Note that those changes do not reflect badly on the Obama-Biden ticket; indeed, I think they're doing very well on the stump. It's that the fickle media supporters of yesteryear (May) have moved restlessly on, borne back ceaselessly toward what they (and their ad sales people) always root for: the dead heat.
In my view, what's happened over the last couple of week is what was always going to happen. The map reverts to a near version of the one we played (and lost) on four years ago, and we fight over four or five states to decide the next four years. Those states are very clearly Michigan, Ohio, and Florida - with smaller states like Colorado playing a role, along with longshots like Virginia (for Obama) and Pennsylvania (for McCain). There are few opportunities to change the game now, except for the debates - surely fated to be among the highest-rated ever.
And it's getting late early this year: "early voting" begins in Ohio in 22 days. Your thoughts?
