Note: This is a special joint post from Obama supporter Jason Chervokas and Clinton blogger Tom Watson.
From the time we met, as reporters and editors covering Bronx politics almost 15 years ago - to this spring - Jason and I have spent countless elections bickering, bantering, observing, predicting, and generally arguing. It's been no different this election, with Jason backing Obama and me blogging for Clinton.
But for once in this cycle we agree about something: the Democratic party needs a fusion ticket and it needs to move towards one now.
Yeah, we know people are angry and bruised, but here's the simple truth: an enormous latent Democratic mandate is lurking in the electorate and a fusion ticket is the best way for the Democratic party to unlock it - putting aside the issue of who is at the top of the ticket for a moment.
Want evidence? The Republicans are talking about it, per right-winger William Kristol today in The New York Times:
Another McCain staffer called my attention to this finding in the latest Fox News poll: McCain led Obama in the straight match-up, 46 to 43. Voters were then asked to choose between two tickets, McCain-Romney vs. Obama-Clinton. Obama-Clinton won 47 to 41.
It's simple really. The last few weeks of campaigning have hardened hearts on both sides of the Democratic divide: 40% of Clinton's voters in Pennsylvania said they would be dissatisfied Obama, and 33% of Obama supporters said they would be dissatisfied with Clinton. If even a fraction of those angry, disaffected Dems lick their wounds and return to the fold in November - and we suspect well more than a fraction of them will be back - there will be a big numbers advantage for whomever the Democrats nominate. If both candidates are on the ticket then it's “everybody in the pool!” time.
More than that, the state-by-state campaigning by two strong candidates has left an entire ecosystem of new Democrats in its wake (Bucks County has gone blue for goodness' sake). And thanks to the quirky, proportional nature of the race, the campaigns have built vast, nuts and bolt organizations across the country, congressional district by congressional district. Combining these operations would give Democrats an enormous tactical advantage on the ground, where the GOP has for years outsourced its organizing to the evangelical wing.
Further, the Clintons have been a Democratic fundraising machine for a generation, their supremacy challenged only by the young upstart from Chicago. Together: Ka-ching.
And only hardened partisans on each side can make the case with straight faces that an Obama/Sebelius ticket or a Clinton/Bayh ticket would be just as potent as Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama.
But a fusion ticket isn't just the best answer for the Dems, it may be the only answer to overturning a generation of near-hegemony for the GOP in presidential politics.
Obama needs Clinton. No other VP short-lister (with the possible exception of Senator James Webb, we both believe) strengthens Senator Obama more in the areas where he needs strengthening all in one feisty, battle-tested package - with seniors, with Hispanics, with Catholics, with Jews, with party regulars, with defense hawks, with labor union members. Perhaps no other short-lister gives him the backstopping experience he needs. Sure, some might suggest that she would be Dick Cheney to his George Bush, an ugly comparison morally, but perhaps electorally apt. And, as Andrew Sullivan wrote in yesterday's London Times, Clinton is the perfect street tough Jimmy Cagney to Obama's priestly Pat O'Brien:
By picking Clinton as a vice-president, he would be pulling a classic American manoeuvre — getting a surrogate to do the dirty pugilism of the campaign, while using his own extraordinary skills to provide a unifying and uplifting overall theme.
Clinton needs Obama. No other VP short-lister (again, with the possible exception of Jim Webb) stregthens her more with African-Americans, new Democrats, with independents, with young voters, and yes, with Republicans. Further, Obama clearly represents the future of the Democratic Party – one that changes the electoral map forver, opening the party to young evangelicals, moderates, and the formerly political dissaffected.
Each candidate would most likely become the other’s de facto successor – Obama would be only 55 in eight years; Hillary would by 69, still young enough by McCain-Reagan standards to seek the highest office. That built-in desire for the top spot usually keeps presidents and vice-presidents in the same camp. Further, a VP of the caliber of a Clinton or Obama would require a serious brief to handle, domestic or international.
Maybe 1+1 doesn't always equal 2. Even with Clinton below him on the ticket it's uncertain to us that Obama can win Florida. But with Clinton on his ticket he can certainly win Ohio, Pennsylvania and maybe still steal a state like Colorado or Nevada. Even with Obama below her on the ticket, Clinton may not be able to steal a real red state, but together they certainly can win Ohio and Pennsylvania and make a good run at Florida. And with both of them on the ticket, the prospect of a real landslide becomes far more than fantasy; and nothing could be better for every down-ticket race in the nation.
And for Democrats, a fusion ticket would be the feel good hit of the summer, a superstar tour bigger than a Led Zeppelin reunion. Can you imagine that convention? Sure feels better than the one featuring half the Democratic Party plus one lording it over the despondent other half of the Democratic Party minus one.
The problem for Dems, of course, is how to get to a fusion ticket. There's only one "elder statesman" in the Democratic party with the weight to broker a deal, and he happens to be married to one of the candidates. With both candidates so close to victory, there's no incentive for either to fold. That means another month of tough political warfare, driving up the negatives on both candidates. It may well mean a floor fight over Michigan and Florida.
Frankly, our hope for a fusion ticket probably requires the full run of the primaries and the last accounting before many prominent Democrats realize – all at once, perhaps – that there’s a happy and obvious solution to a potentially disastrous split. Both candidates have proven themselves to be realists, despite that many of their followers shout at each other. We think they’d take the deal, in order to guarantee victory. We also don’t buy two rampant themes among the bloggers – one, that Hillary is somehow posturing for 2012 by taking Obama down now, and secondly, that Barack would never accept “the Clintons” as partners in his presidency.
These are two extraordinary, big-time politicians with complementary talents and networks of supporters. Both have displayed determination, stamina, and guts. Beating John McCain in November is the primary goal of this primary season. A single path offers the greatest chance for victory.
So sign on for the fusion ticket – and please pass it on.
