This is the way I see the race this morning, and it's trending slightly towards Kerry in the latest state-by-state polls. I'm not pretending to be neutral here, and my hopes/bias/fears are all showing. (And like others, I've been obsessively hitting this map for weeks now).
I now believe that Kerry is close to locking in 259 electoral votes, based on the trends. He will win New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Hawaii, and Iowa. I think Bush is at a fairly soild 213 electoral votes; he'll win Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Arizona.
So there are three scenarios for a Kerry victory - and one for Bush, according to my calculations. Kerry will win if he can pick off either Ohio or Florida. The third scenario has him losing both of those big battleground states, but sweeping the Southwest states, a longshot in my view. To mind my, Bush needs to win both Ohio and Florida and pick off a state in the Southwest. So heading into the final hours, I give Kerry a decent edge in momentum - and electoral scenarios. But that's just me.
