Tom Watson

My Sunday Map

This is the way I see the race this morning, and it's trending slightly towards Kerry in the latest state-by-state polls. I'm not pretending to be neutral here, and my hopes/bias/fears are all showing. (And like others, I've been obsessively hitting this map for weeks now).

I now believe that Kerry is close to locking in 259 electoral votes, based on the trends. He will win New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Hawaii, and Iowa. I think Bush is at a fairly soild 213 electoral votes; he'll win Virginia, West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, and Arizona.

So there are three scenarios for a Kerry victory - and one for Bush, according to my calculations. Kerry will win if he can pick off either Ohio or Florida. The third scenario has him losing both of those big battleground states, but sweeping the Southwest states, a longshot in my view. To mind my, Bush needs to win both Ohio and Florida and pick off a state in the Southwest. So heading into the final hours, I give Kerry a decent edge in momentum - and electoral scenarios. But that's just me.

Prediction Time

As I've said before, I view this site as more of an ongoing conversation than as a mere posting spot for essays and my thoughts of the day. Since this Weblog went live 10 months ago, it's had more than 1,000 comments posted by readers and a cadre of regulars has made its presence felt (and smacked me around on a weekly basis). Comments count, and the conversation is the reason to publish this thing.

So rather than just making my own prediction for Tuesday's ElectionFest2004 (This Time It's Personal)TM I thought it would be more interesting to poll the regulars of this little corner of cyberspace and get their take on the election (in no particular order). I've also taken the liberty of briefly describing their political points of view (they can disagree, and I'll amend as appropriate). I asked everyone for their picks on overall percentage, electoral split, whether there would be any major surprises, and whether we'll know clearly who wins on Election Night. Some gave long answers, others just a quick hit. I'll add my own crystal ball-gazing at the end and tally up the averages.

Fitz
[Conservative, Republican, probably the most pro-Bush regular]

Bush 49.25
Kerry 48.25
Other 2.5

Bush 291
Kerry 247

Election Night: Yes to Bush camp, no to Kerry backers ("Will sue in every close state for recount, allege fraud, and suppression")

Surprises: "No real surprises – OH, FL goes to Bush ... Considered mild upsets – WI goes to Bush/NH goes to Kerry." Lonshot surprise - Bush wins more than 50% of vote, but narrowly loses Electoral College.

Bruce
[Democrat, activist (is campaigning in New Hampshire this weekend), probably most liberal regular]

Kerry 51
Bush 48
Other 1

Kerry 289
Bush 249

Election Night: Yes, clear results on election night. Florida doesn't matter. KE carries Ohio strongly (4-5 pts). NM is closest but doesn't matter -- but goes for KE.

Surprises: Virginia and NC are suprisingly close (but go for Bush). Dems take Senate. Dems make surprising pickups in House (but it stays in Rep control). I guess Nevada is my suprise state for KE. Arkansas is close as well but Clinton can't quite pull it out. Dems taking Senate, with pickups: Ill (obama), Colorado (Salazar), Oklahoma, Kentucky (!), Alaska. Dems hold NC, SC (that is sticking my neck out), and SD. Dems lose Florida and Georgia. Final senate count 52D/46R/1 Ind (with Louisiana going to runoff in December). Final surprise: Nader gets less than Badnarik.

Chervokas
[Verbose, liberal, Democrat, strongly anti-Bush - his own blog is here]

Bush 51
Kerry 47
Other 2

Bush 276
Kerry 262

Electoral Vote: 276-262 Bush

Election Night: Almost certainly not. Florida and Ohio and perhaps New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be decided by razor thin margins amid challenges from which ever side seems to be losing.

Surprises: In this race there are no surprise states because any state can surprise, it is that close. Hawaii for Bush would be the biggest surprise. If Bush has Hawaii, Kerry could win Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and still lose by two electoral votes, and the race could come down to late numbers from the middle of the Pacific. Biggest wild card state? Colorado. I don't think Kerry realistically has a shot here. But others do, including Zogby which has Kerry up by 4 points! Either way voters may decide in a referendum to split their electoral votes potentially deciding the race that way. With Colorado and Hawaii, Kerry won't need Wisconsin or Iowa. But for me the most important state is Wisconsin. I think the road to the White House goes through there. Bush leads among cheeseheads according to everyone but Zogby who has Kerry up 4 points. Certainly the race in WI has narrowed. And political demographics--registered dems out number registered republicans, both senators are democrats as is the recently elected Governor--make me feel that Wisconsin, a state that voted for both Gore and Dukakis, is a state that Kerry can still swing. But the most recent polls throughout the nation suggest that undecided voters have swung already. There really are no more votes on the sidelines. This recent narrowing in Wisconsin may be too little to late for Kerry. My surprise scenario would have Kerry losing Wisconsin and Florida but taking Colorado for a 271-267 electoral victory. But that's more of a silly dream than a real prediction. Then again if the Red Sox can win a World Series anything can happen.

Tom K.
[Republican, conservative with strong libertarian tendencies]

Bush 52
Kerry 47
Other 1

Bush 300
Kerry 239

Election Night: Yes, as to overall result, with possibly a few non-controlling states unresolved

Surprise: New Jersey for Bush

Steve-o
[Republican, moderate, swing voter, unhappy with Bush policy]

Bush 51
Kerry 49

Bush 292
Kerry 246

Election Night: We will know by 6 a.m., Nov 3

Surprises: In his election coverage, Dan Rather does NOT use any hackneyed okie phrases containing the word "dog."

Elizabeth
[Moderate, progressive Democrat, anti-war]

Kerry 50
Bush 49
Nader 1

Bush 270
Kerry 268

Election Night: No

Surprises: I think Kerry will win popular and Bush will win electoral. NJ could be a bad surprise.

Elliot
[Moderate liberal, Democrat]

Kerry 54
Bush 46

Kerry 271
Bush 268

Election Night: No clear results—Ohio goes to the Supreme Court

Surprise: How close the race is in Texas

Brian
[Democrat, progressive - his own blog is here]

Kerry 51
Bush 48
Other 1

Kerry 272
Bush 268

Election Night: yes, we'll know

Surprises: Kerry wins Iowa

Tom Watson
[Insightful, occasionally wrong, hyper-sensitive to criticism, liberal Democrat, anti-war, anti-Bush, selectively libertarian but only when it suits his inherent political bias, friend to all, malice toward none]

Kerry 50.4
Bush 48.9
Other.7

Kerry 304
Bush 234

Election Night: Yes, we'll know but Republicans will have to challenge Ohio and Florida, alleging voter registration fraud.

Surprises: The main surprise will be the margin of Kerry's Electoral College spread, because he'll carry both the swing states in the upper Midwest and Florida - both thanks to extraordinary voter registration efforts and the ground game financed and organized by the DNC and 527 groups. Mild surprise will be a disappointing showing in the Southwest states for Democrats, where party leaders hope to create a major building block for the next big coalition. Close results there, but no go. This is a one-time only election, not a new coalition for Democrats, largely based on the incredibly poor job George Bush has done in office.

Collective Wisdom
[Centrist with both a slight progressive lean and a libertarian bent, united by the common bond of love and admiration for this Weblog and its author]

Kerry 49.63
Bush 49.35
Other 1.02

Bush 272
Kerry 266.4

Surprises: None! The collective wisdom of the regulars on this blog is that we'll essentially have a repeat of 2000, that the nation remains equally split, and that th Republicans maintain their edge in electoral politics. Amazing.

Further thoughts welcome....

Freepers' Hate Speech

So, Zogby's daily tracking poll showed Kerry up one point for the first time over President Bush, and John Zogby has been cautiously predicting a narrow Kerry victory. So here's a typical reaction on the "freedom-loving" FreeRepublic.com discussion boards populated by Republicans:

John Zogby and his brother James are Arab scum that want to see the USA defeated by bin Laden and company, and he is doing the same thing he tried in 2002, when he looked like the fool he is with his off the wall, false polling. Zogby should stick to being a "fair" pollster, rather then being a cheerleader for Usama bin Laden's chosen candidate for POTUS, John "Traitor/Treason" Kerry. No matter what Zogby says, John Kerry is going down big time on election day and so is the entire "traitor" Democrat Party. Mr Zogby, get this: we don't give hoot what your lying poll says!!! And get this: we will be getting out every vote for GW Bush that we humanly can!!!

Folks, this is hate speech - pure and simple. And the sad thing is not that some idiot posted this (anyone can post to a Web bulletin board) but that no one - not a single moderate, mainstream Republican on that well-traveled site - had the guts to repudiate this kind of trash.

And here's what FreeRepublic claims is the credo of its founders and community:

Free Republic is a loosely organized group of grassroots Americans who support our Constitution and look for honesty, integrity and honor from those in government.

Look, I'm a liberal. But I believe there is an honest and honorable position in American politics that says this: the Federal government is too large and wastes too much money. The tax burden on ordinary citizens is too high. Good government is local government. Strong defense, free speech, get the government out of our lives. We all know the drill.

Well listen up Jim Robinson and all you so-called Freepers - a badge the FreeRepublic community wears with pride - hate speech is not honest and honorable. And neither is your sad, pathetic silence, your acquiescence to the haters among you. Don't censor; good conservative libertarians don't. But please condemn. Please speak out. Or don't talk to me about "freedom."

UPDATE: So I logged on to FreeRepublic and posted under the moniker Teddy Roosevelt, hoping to find some common ground:

Looks folks - politics is one thing, hate speech another. When someone on this board attacks John Zogby because he is an Arab: "John Zogby and his brother James are Arab scum that want to see the USA defeated by bin Laden and company"...This is wrong and has nothing to do with "grassroots Americans who support our Constitution and look for honesty, integrity and honor from those in government." This kind of speech doesn't require censorship; it requires repudiation. Who here has the guts?

My post received 12 replies within two minutes - one agreeing, one saying "how do we know it's not true," and the rest calling me, essentially, "newbie, Democrat, traitor-loving bastard." Then the "freedom-loving" owners of the forum removed the entire discussion. And revoked my posting privileges. Yeah, civil liberties, the Constitution. Uh-huh. What an embarassment.

He Lives

The greatest revelation in Osama bin Laden's October surprise tape on al-Jazeera today is not what he had to say about George Bush. It's not what he had to say about John Kerry. It's not what he had to say about the grievances of "his people" or the security of the United States. No, the greatest revelation today is that Osama bin Laden is alive, and looking well, three years after 9/11. And quite frankly, this singular fact is the greatest failure of the Bush Administration. There can be, for real Americans, no greater indictment, no harsher gut level realization of failure, than this stark, naked, and horrifying fact.

The Promised Land

A couple of months ago, I argued here that Bruce Springsteen and other artists on MoveOn's tour to oppose Bush's reelection might well backfare, annoying swing voters, and causing a backlash against liberal performers. Well, I'm here to tell you I was wrong.

Bruce's rally in Madison, WI drew 80,000 people today and pumped up John Kerry's neck-and-neck race with BC04 in that state. And Springsteen will stay on the road through the eve of the election, closing things out with a huge rally in Cleveland next week. Wisconsin and Ohio, pillars of the promised land and a Bush defeat. I now believe that Bruce (and Jon Bon Jovi, who's also appearing with Kerry) can sway some key votes in the last hours, and I think the tour excited the base of support for the Democrats and gave the entire campaign an aura of excitement and charisma that - quite obviously - it has lacked in other ways.

Today in Wisconsin, Springsteen was sparse, direct, and elegant - devoid of irony - like the best of his songs:

"I've been writing songs about America for thirty year, about what America stands for, and what America fights for. The essential ideas of America's identity are what is at stake November 2."

Springsteen praised Kerry for honoring America's ideals, for addressing issues of economic justice, health care, civil rights, the environment, for advocating "a sane and responsible foreign policy," and for "safeguarding our precious democracy." He said Kerry has "an adult view" of our place in the world and "understands that we are not infallible." The Boss said Kerry has helped America face its "hard truths" and find a "deeper patriotism" and will "make our world a better and a safer place." Springsteen invoked the name of Paul Wellstone, mentioning that the late Senator from Minnesota had a saying, "The future is for the passionate." To that, Springsteen added: "Well, the future is now, and let your passions loose. The country we carry in our hearts is waiting."

Then he played The Promised Land, a 24-year-old song that has aged quite well - and a song that urges its listeners to "blow away the lies that leave you nothing but lost and broken hearted." In Wisconsin and Ohio, they're listening.

The Precious

Oh....Oh....Must have this....Is it in stores now?....The colors are pretty....So sleek, so fair!....What a joy to meet!....We only wish to catch a fish, so juicy-sweet!.....Color pictures of the kids.....Album covers, so fair....Sharper fonts, saith Pogue.....Plug into TV for slideshows....Yes, slideshows with backing tracks by The Who, Zevon, and TMG....the White Wizard's spell is strong, yes, strong....So shiny, so bright...."stunning brightness and crispness," say CNET hobbitses....$499 and $599? Pah! I'd brave the depths of Mordor (and I knows the path)....for this shiny, white plastic wonder....this new, color iPod Photo....the Precious.

When Worlds Collide

More proof today that blogs bring people together. The setting: an industry conference at which I was moderating a panel discussion. The scene: a table at lunch. The players: regular blog readers and posters Bruce and Steve-o, who didn't know each other and had never met. They sit together, talk turns to the election, Websites, and the blog. Suddenly, the light dawns. "You're Steve-o!" "You're Bruce!" "I read you all the time!" "Me too!" Yes folks, blogs bring people together. You gotta love it.

Riddle Me This

How does any of this help George W. Bush, whose election, it appears, turns more and more on Americans' impression of the quagmire in Iraq:

- Iraq’s Prime Minister Ayad Allawi blamed the U.S.-led coalition Tuesday for “great negligence” in the ambush that killed about 50 soldiers heading home after graduation from a U.S.-run training course, and warned of an escalation of terrorist attacks. This is the same Allawi who was installed by the U.S. and had his speech to Congress written for him by the White House communications staff!

- It somehow leaked on Capitol Hill and the Pentagon this week (and yes, it looks like Republican fingerprints) that the Bush Administration will seek another $70 billion in emergency Iraqi war aid, driving costs for the war to greater than $225 billion. Add to that more than 1,100 combat deaths. The total price tag seems awfully high for what is increasingly an obvious failure.

- U.S. forces somehow managed to allow 380 tons - yes, tons - of HMX and RDX explosives, two commonly used military explosives that can also be used to bring down airplanes or to create a trigger for nuclear weapons, to disappear in Iraq. This us up there with the FBI's failure to translate 120,000 hours of Al Qaeda audio intercepts and directly undercuts BC04's sole resonating claim in this race: that it will keep Americans safer.

Hey, undecided voters, which way you gonna break? Hey Jeff Jarvis, time to announce your endorsement. Maybe news like this why the hawkish Andrew Sullivan endorses Kerry, based on security issues.

The Rehnquist Tie

Talk about your political doomsday scenarios. Chief Justice William Rehnquist is rushed to the hospital today for an emergency tracheotomoy related to his thyroid cancer. We wish the Chief well, but should he die or be incapacitated - and this sliver-tight election makes its way to the Supremes - how much does the country want to see a 4-4 deadlock on the Court in the increasingly likely Kerry v. Bush? As Justice Stephen Breyer admits aloud this week, politics surely plays a part.

Rehnquist's illness also throws added attention on the makeup of the Court and the crucial role the next President is likely to play. If the Chief dies, does anyone doubt Bush will name Antonin Scalia - a self-admitted radical - to the top post?

UPDATE: This comes from the Washington Monthly, courtesy of Hullabaloo (sad commentary, alas):

"Even though the U.S. Supreme Court has said Chief Justice William Rehnquist will return to the bench following cancer surgery, administration officials are quietly considering candidates to replace him and even the possibility of making a recess appointment. The officials said that they do not want to talk about the process publicly in the last week of the presidential campaign. However, one insider said that the West Wing is considering what would happen if the judge left the bench soon and if a close election next Tuesday meant an evenly split 4-4 court was to decide the winner. Such a situation would likely mean that a lower court's ruling on an outcome would be final and officials are worried that it would go against the President."

The Widening Map

The conventional wisdom on today's Sunday schmoozefests and on A1 of the NYT is that the "ever-shrinking" electoral map is narrowing, as the candidates concentrate on fewer and fewer battlegrounds states. In fact, the opposite is true, in my view: the map is getting wider, and it's getting wider quickly.

Did anyone consider Michigan, Oregon, and Hawaii as in play for BC04? They are, according to the polls. Want some within-the-MOA states that should shock Bushies and give hope to KE04? Take a look at Arkansas, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona. Add them all to the 11-state conventional wisdom battleground map, and suddenly there are 21 swing states, at least - more white on the map than either blue or red.

For an incumbent to face a widening - not shrinking - electoral map with a stubbornly low personal approval rating is very bad news indeed for George W. Bush. It does not mean that John Kerry has closed the proverbial deal; but it does mean the President has no real momentum. According to today's Washington Post this is making GOP operatives very nervous:

One Republican official described the mood at the top of the campaign as apprehensive. " 'Grim' is too strong," the official said. "If we feel this way a week from now, that will be grim."

And there's positive news for KE04 in two mainstream national polls this morning, the kind the lazy press always cites to describe the horserace. The ABC News daily tracking poll has it 49-48 Bush, the first time BC04 is below 50%, and a surge for Kerry after "Saturday was Kerry's best single day since this tracking poll began Oct. 1," according to the polling director. And the latest numbers also find "President Bush’s lead in last week’s Newsweek poll has evaporated," said the news magazine this morning. They have it 46-46 - again, very bad momentum news for the President.