Thought I’d present one of the many instant message conversations I’ve been having these days about John Kerry, George Bush, and the current landscape – this one with long-time collaborator Jason Chervokas. The focus is on international relations, the war in Iraq, and terrorism. It’s been edited slightly to remove short-hand that only he and I understand and to fix typo’s.
Chervokas: If Kerry can give people a handful of decent reasons to vote for him, he could clean up.
Watson: He'd better start and he needs a way better message on the war/terrorism question...he comes across as weak on ideas
Chervokas: Yup
Watson: I need to blog this – I haven't posted in a week, been on the road.
Chervokas: Terrible....Kerry has gotta come out with a full-scale plan of what he would do differently as President to clean up Iraq, make it stable, and destroy al Qaeda.
Watson: I agree - if he could "project leadership" on this issue a bit more, he'd have something.
Chervokas: Yeah, forget what happened before. Iraq is going to be a huge problem if he can win. You can't just pull out, so what's Kerry's plan for a stable Iraqi government?
Watson: Indeed, for the Muslim world, for energy policy, for globalism - it's all tied together. His fake protectionist stance hurts his foreign policy stance.
Chervokas: Also, nice job by Bush with Sharon, basically telling the Palestinians to go fuck themselves and undercutting his own stated policy.
Watson: Well, that's GWB.
Chervokas: Yeah, but there's short and long term programmatic problems with Iraq
Watson: First - there is no Iraq!
Chervokas: Short term Kerry would inherit troops on the ground and no political solution.
Watson: We need to realize that and proceed - first stop, Turkey - you want in, accept Kurdistan as a nation. Then deal with partitioning the Sunnis and the Shia's.
Chervokas: It's called "nation building."
Watson: Yeah, but smaller nations. So that if one goes south, you still have the other two.
Chervokas: The problem is the only deep water port is in Basra. It's like the problems with partitioning Israel and Palestine.
Watson: True, but oil pipelines go cross country anyway.
Chervokas: Culturally, it might work … but economically it might not.
Watson: You need to create stable trading patterns. The old Arab world, what we called Persia, was based on stable trading routes. It's one of the the oldest “international” trading societies on earth.
Chervokas: Yeah but the U.S. model is multi ethnic, shared economics as the basis of nationhood - which isn't necessarily wrong.
Watson: We need to accept that the USA is a one in a million shot.
Chervokas: Well, okay, but look at the European Union. They've managed to have sovereignty and joint economics and the early going looks pretty good.
Watson: True. Of course, the EU came about after tens of millions of people died by warfare over the course of a single century - it took that to point the path to an EU.
Chervokas: Yeah, well, that's always been the path to long term reorganizaton on economic lines versus tribal ones. It never happens peacefully.
Watson: It's not generally accepted post 9/11 as a “tough-enough” stance, but we really need to look at the causes of terrorism in these huge societies and see what we can do - America fights very well, but it's also the best post-fight peacemaker in world history. We always invest. We need more of that spirit of American optimism that has always guided the nation.
Chervokas: Well, very specifically in the case of Iraq we went in with no political plan. The Bushies were clearly played by Chalabi and wanted to install him as their guy, but that's obviously not going to happen. June 30, they’'re "turning over" control of the country, and today they can't even tell you to whom or to what authority they intend to turn over the freaking country.
Watson: Yeah.
Chervokas: Long term, sure, the appeasement of repressive regimes from Saudi Arabia to Egypt, the military overthrow of the elected religious government in Algiers, etc....all long term strategic problems. But you can't have 100,000 troops on the ground in Iraq for the entire time you’re trying to solve those problems. And you can't meanwhile be standing there with Sharon telling the Palestinans “take what we give you and like it.”
Chervokas: Palestinian/Israeli policy is crucial because is broadly effects opinion of us negotiating posture elsewhere. Of course if we give Sharon a blank check, we're gonna give the Saudi family a blank check.
Watson: Yeah, how you treat the Palestinians resonates in every capital in the Arab world - friendly and otherwise. You just don't get the feel that there's a governing strategy at the White House. Like they think it's Florida - how will it play tomorrow?
Chervokas: Where is Colin Powell? He's gotta be the most spineless Secretary of State of all time. Madeline Albright had a bigger set.
Watson: It's all about "loyalty" at the White House - not long-term love of country, service to the world, or even power-brokering internationally - it's just loyalty to the central team vs. "all enemies, Democrat or terrorist."