'Outperforming Kerry'

That seems to be the key phrase of this evening in wonkland, as poll-watchers - professional, semi-pro and Stratomatic - devour the early numbers. Some of the most bullish numbers hail from counties in Indiana and Florida, where Barack Obama is blasting the returns put up by Kerry-Edwards four years ago in Sanity v. Bush. The interpretation is simple: those counties shine a light on the rest of the swing state action and portend a sweeping - some would venture "transformational" - victory for the Obama-Biden ticket.

Non-numbers geek that I am, I'd say it "looks pretty damned good."

This morning, we went over to the high school and bypassed the metal detectors on the way to the cafeteria and the ladies at the polling station. Not too crowded, and we'd waited till after the pre-commute rush so that we could include the two boys in the process without a big wait. I enjoy the old New York State machines, with their soul-satisfying metal casing and levers and mechanism. Every vote chosen brings a metallic click, and every vote registered rings a clanking bell - and the curtain opens on post-voting satisfaction.

My pre-election pick of 345 election votes looks pretty strong right now, as Obama seems to be outperforming Kerry against the failed Republican brand and a McCain-Palin ticket in freefall.

UPDATE: New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, two key swing states, go to Obama. No McCain miracle for the NH "maverick." This bodes very well. I'm hoping for a call of the election by 10 pm.

UPDATE II: In addition to Twitter, I'm watching CNN (mainly) on the tube and following techPresident, Al Giordano, the Vanity Fair frathouse,  the excellent map at Pollster.com, and Nate Silver at 538 who says "the night has gone pretty much how you might expect it to based on the pre-election polls." Which would be huge.

UPDATE III: Georgia win would have meant a wave election for Obama, but it's not a major loss in the grand scheme.

UPDATE IV: Dole and Sununu lose Senate seats - Jesse Helms' old seat goes blue! Congressional sweep may actually be larger than presidential margin. Wow. If Obama wins Virginia, McCain really has no path to win this.

UPDATE V: Fox calls Ohio for Obama, a big piece of the puzzle - back in the Democratic column. There is no path for McCain save a miracle. Say it: President-Elect Barack Obama, Democrat from Illinois.

UPDATE VI: I'm watching Fox - enjoying the funereal atmosphere. Jim Wolcott: "Brit Hume's long face seems to get longer, more John Kerryesque, with each state that turns blue."

UPDATE VII: Chris Shays loses in Connecticut - the GOP in NE is gone.

UPDATE VIII: Fox calls Virgina for Obama, the rout is on.

UPDATE IX: There's the big network call. Barack Obama elected President. Lord preserve the man.

Comments

[steverino]

Don't count chickens too early . . . MSNBC just called GA for McCain

[Slappy]

Republican coworker told me that Democrats vote tomorrow, Republicans today. Is this true?

[Susan Carey Dempsey]

I believed - and still do - that we'll see Obama take this, and we'll know fairly early. Still, to see Ohio in Obama's column, on top of - ahem - PA, this is truly exciting.

Susie Q Public

[Tom W.]

Yeah, PA came through big time - the night's first big win. OH really closes out McCain.

[steverino]

Now getting the REAL coverage from Stewart and Colbert

[Slappy]

Feels good to win once in a while. I hope I grow accustomed to it.

He's going to be a great one.

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[Neil M]

The biggest surprise of the evening, for me, was the defeat of Chris Shays. One would think that the loss of the last New England House Republican would teach the GOP a few lessons about alienating entire sections of the nation by calling them not "the real America." However, in browsing the conservative blogs today, I am convinced that the only lessons Republicans will learn will be the wrong ones. I can just hear them now:

- "We just weren't conservative enough."

- "Sarah Palin would have saved McCain if she'd been allowed to be who she was."

- "Sarah Palin ruined McCain because of who she was."

- "Obama mesmerized the nation with empty rhetoric, but when we run on the issues, we win."

Ye gods.

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