Voices as diverse as John Cole, Chris Bowers and Al Giordano make persuasive cases that Barack Obama is now the favorite for the Democratic nomination, and who am I to disagree? They're viewing Obamania from the front row while I'm just up here in the bleachers rooting for the out-of-towners. Besides, the media message has turned - now it's Obama with the fundraising machine, Obama with the old-school endorsements, Obama with the caucus fixers.
So what if the coveted Perez Hilton and Jack Nicholson endorsements (as well as those minor demographic groups known as Latinos and women) apparently trumped Teddy "Esta Aqui" Kennedy, Oprah and Maria Shriver out in California - the torch has been passed to a new generation of high expectations, and they're Barack Obama's to love and cherish.
The new media storyline is this - a virtual dead heat last night validates the newcomer - "tie goes to runner" or "ground can't cause a fumble" - who is now widely expected to sweep every primary from here to March, while Senator Clinton's campaign is broke, demoralized, and running on fumes. Turns out Lance Mannion was right, and even though Obama's campaign couldn't possibly live up to its followers' out-sized expectations of wins in Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, the narrative remains centered on an Obama juggernaut.
Lance is also correct about the media narrative on the other side of our political coin: the maverick McCain is on the move (and don't we all love him) and Huckabee may force his way onto the ticket. Actually, I think those clever Republicans will heed the growing drumbeat for Condi Rice as wingwoman to the war-monger, and thereby aim a potentially deadly arrow at Democratic demographics.
We Clinton backers can often feel lonely amidst the sugary hope and change - "So spurn me, I voted for Hillary," said Jim Wolcott last night - but I'm reminded time and again that there sure are a lot of us. Obama won more states and may have a delegate or two over Clinton, but our candidate won the popular vote and all the big Democratic states. Whereas his campaign has a boisterous and seemingly endless ceiling, her candidacy has a quiet but very high floor, populated by cornerstone Democratic voters - blue collar, women, Hispanics.
There's clearly no quit in either side. Obviously, Obama is a phenomenon - though I do believe he needs to call rewrite on that speech, it's getting time-worn and will soon turn like milk on the doorstep. He will continue on to the convention. And so will Clinton, who actually seems to benefit in strange way from her new outsider status. As Wolcott says, there's a natural reaction against famous people telling you who to vote for that helps the New York Senator. Oprah's last rally in California played to 5,000 empty seats. The celebrity portion of Decision '08 may well be past, unless the Goracle decides to tarnish his Nobel. Frankly, this wasn't the campaign Clinton planned, but it's the one she's got - running against the new national establishment of the Democratic Party, led by Howard Dean and John Kerry. The rules changed on Clinton, but she's adapting and fighting back. Take a step back, and you have to love this race.
Don't ask me where it goes or how either one gets to the needed delegate count before the convention. I'm thinking this goes right to Pennsylvania, which may make Ed Rendell the most popular Democrat on the planet come April.
from Amazon.
