Bums Thrown Out? Predictions...

Right. It's Sunday evening. The talk shows and all-star panels have weighed in. The polling is mostly done. The surprises - Kerry, the Evangelical sex scandal, "I'm keeping Rumsfeld till they turn out the lights," death by hanging for Saddam (ok, no surprise there) - have come and gone. The advertising has turned very ugly. And the time has come for predictions in this big-time mid-term election. I'll give mine here and solicit/track yours in comments and updates.

The House

Chill the libations in Nancy Pelosi's office - she'll be elected Speaker in the next Congress. But hold the champagne if you're thinking massive, tsunami-like turnover. I think the Democrats will win a majority, in a range between where the Republicans are now (plus 15) on the low side and over 30 on the high side. Democrats will control the committees, but their majority will be small enough to stifle some of the "get 'em" instincts of the new chairmen; we're not getting 50 new seats. If you're looking for recriminations, it will come in the hearings on the conduct of the war - but not in impeachment. I'll go out on another limb here, though - the big story will be the sweep in the so-called blue states, especially in the Northeasts, where Democrats will see a historic consolidation of power. Look to Connecticut, New York, and Pennsylvania. My final count: 234-201.

The Senate

It's important news that President Bush will "keep" Dick Cheney on as Veep - never mind that it's a Constitutional office - because ol' dead-eye is going to be spending a lot of time up on Capitol Hill over the next two years. It's going 50-50, folks. The Democrats will come close, but won't run the table to get to 51. The race-baiting GOP ads worked: we're going to lose Tennessee. Ohio, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania are wins. We'll hold New Jersey and Maryland. And Virginia, Montana, and Missouri - Democrats take two of three. That's even Steven, and puts Cheney's ample rear quarters on the podium in the big chair for many a long day of acrimony.

The Governorships

I think this a potentially fascinating storyline and one that's getting lost amidst the marquee Senate race and the looming House switch. Democrats are in a position to gain a dominant majority in state executive branches, with all that means for the '08 races and our own re-gerrymandering (let's call it what it is folks). Look at the solid leads: Arizona and New Mexico, part of a big move in the Southwest. Tennessee and Arkansas, a huge softening in the GOP hold on the border southern states. And dig these: Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma! All with leads ranging from around 15 points to 30 points in the polls. Amazing. The big domestic calling cards for Republicans like immigration and gay marriage are not working on the state levels. By my count, Democrats could control executive mansions in 28 states by Wednesday. That is a huge trend, and so much of our electoral system revolves around local control.

Now, I'm not getting pre-giddy here. I respect the Republicans' phone bank-direct mail-live volunteers organization - it's the best ever built on a national level. Ever. But the issues are all against that particular team, foremost among them, the disaster in Iraq. I'm looking forward to Tuesday night; watch for some live-blogging and some interesting reports. Your own predictions most welcome.

UPDATE: Kos predicts a 51-49 Senate, with the Dems picking up between 15 and 36 seats in the House, while grabbing eight more Governorships. He thinks Democrats win Montana, Missouri, and Virginia while losing Tennesse, and he says Lamont will squeak by Lieberman. Also go read Blue Girl's great post.

UPDATE II: Via the wonderful PoliticalWire, more predictions:

Cook Political Report: Democratic gain of 20-35 seats in the House, 4-6 seats in the Senate and 6-8 seats in the governor's races. Evans-Novak Political Report: Democratic gain of 19 seats in the House, two Senate seats and five governorships. "It is a sign of Republicans' sorry state that, at this point, this is actually a very favorable outlook for them." Rothenberg Political Report: Democratic gain of 30-36 seats in the House and 4-7 seats in the Senate.

Comments

[blue girl]

I agree with you here, Mr. Watson. Especially the *libations* part. But, I'd also add that they'll be chillin' at the Algonquin, too.

:)

It's going to be a nasty two years to come.

One thing I *really* hope happens: I really hope Macaca loses. Even though Webb doesn't totally float my boat either. And not because of something he once wrote either.

Have fun live blogging! I'll be checking in.

Go Democrats!

[fred]

tom,

i think webb and mccaskill are going to win, furthering your argument about the softening of the border states.

the race to watch is Montana, where Tester has to hold on.

fred

[Slappy]

I went to a MoveOn phone "party" on Sunday. I do not know the amount of phone calls the Republicans get out but MoveOn claimed at this "party" to have had made 5 million phone calls this political season. And there was more GOTV activity and more volunteers than 2004. Look for the GOTV efforts to start becoming less of an advantage for the GOP in 2008. Nothing like being in 2nd place to get one motivated.

I agree about the Governorships and state legislators. Who runs the states after the 2010 census is counted will have a HUGE advantage and neither side will show mercy when slicing up their states.

Either a slight or huge majority in the House doesn't matter. Either way the Dems are looking to take down Bush. If they don't they will bear the wrath of those who put them there. They were put there with a mission and they know they must deliver. Its all out war in the House. There will be bodies left for dead on the House floor very soon.

I think the Dems take the Senate. Doesn't matter by how much. One is all it takes. The big question here is whether Joe Lieberman backs the impeachment hearings or not. He will hold his grudge against the Dems until the day he dies and he plans to get even.

Within 6 months I look for a MAJOR split in the GOP. The Pat Robertson/NeoCon crowd vs the Pat Buchanan/"Libertarian" crowd.

Light butter on my popcorn please.

[steve-o]

Tom - I'm praying that you're right, but I've been having these nasty flashbacks to election '04, when we all left work assured (by people IN THE KNOW, no less) that Kerry had it in the bag. Everyone I know is voting Democratic...but that's the problem: most of the people I know ALWAYS vote Democratic. It's those folks that I DON'T know who seem to be keeping the conservatives in power.

Steve-o's sad crystal ball says: Republicans hang on to a sliver of a lead in both houses.

See you, Susan, and Heather over at the Beer Bar for yet another despondent post-election lunch on Wednesday...

[Tom W.]

Nooooooo! (Not that I don't like you guys, but we were sloppy drunk at 11:50 am).

[Will Divide]

50-50 maybe, but do you think the R's can keep anything like dicipline in the aftermath of this, uhm, to put it nicely, g'hanze megilla?? The story on Wednesday/Thursday will be how a delusional Bush fucked the last two weeks of campaigning. I doubt Dick will have many ties to break (well, maybe one of his own, tied around a pipe in the basement).

[blue girl]

when we all left work assured (by people IN THE KNOW, no less) that Kerry had it in the bag.

Did you guys really think Kerry had it in the bag? I *never* had that feeling. Ever. Well, after the debates, it was hard to argue against him. But, still. Didn't you *know in your gut* (not to use a Bush phrase, sorry) that he would lose?

I've got a feeling about tomorrow. We'll take the House. I'm not sure about the Senate.

But, let's keep hope alive!

You never know.

[steve-o]

Yeah, Blue Girl. We really DID think so...and so did a lot of other folks (I seem to recall Al Franken - seriously - projecting a Kerry victory on Air America based on early exit poll results. Pride cometh before the fall...or, better: disappointment for the Dems lately comes IN the fall...

Hope it's not so this time around.