Frist Fades to Black

I do believe we have been betrayed by those we elected to represent us. We have been handed over to the enemy for the sake of "Senate" tradition. I hereby pledge to withhold monies from ANY republican group however far removed from this act of treachery. I certainly hope that we will not be further insulted by some self serving pile of excrement posing as an elected representative whining that we simply don't understand the intricacies of the "revered senatorial body." Cowards have no place in the role of leadership and we are unfortunate indeed to be led by just such a miserable lot.

Such was the typical reaction of the so-called Americans who post regularly to the fascist blog known, in glorious irony, as FreeRepublic.

Tonite, the freepers lost - big-time. And they know it. To their credit, there's no sugar-coating on FreeRepublic tonight. The pols they despise even more than Ted Kennedy and Hillary Clinton, the moderate Republicans, are the big winners. It galls the freepers to recognize that the likes of John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Susan Collins, John Warner, and Olympia Snowe cleaned their clock.

Here's what else the historic filibuster compromise means:

• Bill Frist's political ambitions are at a stark, lonely, pathetic dead end. His Presidential campaign is now a non-starter. His failure on the nuclear option makes him almost as hated by the religious right as by the loyal left.
• Frist and his squad, led by Dick Cheney, did not have the votes. they came up short. Rejected. Not up to the task.
• John McCain is now the favorite for the Republican nomination for President - or for a fusion third party run for the White House if the religious right refuses to acknowledge the compromise. The only American politician who can beat him? Senator Hillary Clinton.
• The wheels are now in motion for a real Republican split, coupled with a centrist alliance, that could lead the formation of one or possibly two important parties or movements that do not see their homes in the traditional GOP or Democratic strongholds.

Blue and red are becoming purple and brown and pink.

UPDATE: Kos, who's still not sure Harry Reid had the votes, nails it thusly: "On top of everything, Frist looks weak. He's failed his crazies. He's finished." We concur.

UPDATE II: The ever-centrist Bull Moose has a terrific post called "The Patriotic Option" that praises McCain and quotes Dr. Jimmy Dobson's lament: "a complete bailout and betrayal by a cabal of Republicans and a great victory for united Democrats." Correct, Doc. Joe Gandelman (naturally) provides an epic round-up of last night's news, with link left, right, and center and he too sees this as a definite loss for the religious right. Jason Chervokas says the deal was a message from centrists to President Bush and Senator Frist: "we backed us off the brink this time, call off your dogs or we'll shoot you down the next time." But he also warns that the religious right is unlikely to back down. The vicious Steve Gilliard has a profane message for ol' Doc Dobson, but the best part of his post is the verbatim verbiage on wingnut blogs - sheer right-wing apoplexy. Love it.

UPDATE III: What do the liberals think? Lance Mannion doesn't like the deal because Bush gets his judges and the Dems have to rely on centrist Repubs to hold up their end of the bargain. Matt Yglesias says that "anything that somewhat humiliates Bill Frist can't be all that bad," but also ain't thrilled by the brokering. Josh Marshall calls it "an unpleasant compromise" that's a victory for the center, which defeated a larger force on the field of political battle.

UPDATE IV: Lawrence O'Donnell had this to say about McCain in his Huffington post: If John McCain is not the next Republican presidential nominee, it will be because he outraged the Dobson wing of his party with the cloture compromise. Senator McCain knew that he was risking his political future every minute he was in the room discussing compromise. What Senator McCain did in the end -- pushing both gangs of seven together for the press conference announcing what no one thought they could accomplish -- is easily the bravest political act of this century. Fred Wilson, a longtime centrist Democrat who has given to plenty of campaigns, says he loves McCain and would have voted for him in 2000. Says Fred: I'd love to see McCain in the White House. He'd take the country back to a place it needs to go.

Comments

[bruce b.]

Interesting analysis, TW, if a bit instantaneous, especially when predicting such dramatic realignments.

Please note that McCain himself gave the credit to Byrd and Warner.

The Republican right clearly over-reached, as they did on Schiavo and Social Security. And they clearly lost.

My one fear is that the newly empowered moderates on both sides will broker a bad compromise on Social Security. But this was definitely a good deal for the Democrats.

[chervokas]

I can't say I agree w/ the idea that Frist is dead in the water at all...to the Christian right, which still controls the GOP and which will choose it's next prez candidate, Frist will remain an heroic Jihadi.

Also, I don't think at all the deal means that Frist didn't have the votes. If either Reid or Frist thought w/ confidence that they had the votes, they would have pushed the end game much harder.

Furthermore, as I wrote over at my blog, Frist and Bush won't pull back, they'll keep throwing far right nominees at the Senate trying to get the coalition to crack. And the Dems will have to filibuster one of them or gather enough no votes thanks to this compromise, or the agreement giving them the right to filibuster will be meaningless.

Finally, I think Bruce is right, if this coalition holds together (a big 'if'), almost certainly it will broker a social security deal of some sort--my guess is that it will amount to no more than supplemental savings accounts, but who knows.

[Bill Martin]

The Democrats were not trying to block radically extreme nominees. The Democrats decided to block qualified nominees in an unprecedented and historical abuse of the filibuster rule which seemed to me based more over sour grapes from lost elections than any other reason.

Bill Frist being a leader drew a line in the sand to end this misbehavior. Finally some centrists and not so centrists got together and hammered out a last minute deal. Make no mistake; this would not have happened without Bill Frist taking the position he did.

Here is the deal as I see it:
Some of the Presidents’ qualified nominees get a deserved up or down vote in exchange for the Democrats agreeing to stop abusing the Filibuster Rule.

I agree it is a compromise where each side can claim victory or victim based on the spin of choice. I’m sure people on both ends of the political spectrum see only humiliating failure and are angry. I saw a classic Barbara Boxer BS session last night, full of misdirection and deceit…She’s pissed.

I think it is too early to say what this means in the entirety of the political universe. I feel a little uncomfortable rewarding bad behavior, but I do prefer compromise when its possible.

[Marblex]

Best of all possible worlds short of a complete defeat for the theocrats on a nooklear option vote. This way, if they decide to try it again (doubtful at this point) they will do it over a Supreme Court nominee, which will not only garner more media coverage (yes, even our pathetic marketing/ advertising media) and, more importantly, will engage the attention of the sheeple, who don't really much care about Appellate Courts.

The wingnuts wanted to have their simple majority up/down on judges in place so they could put whomever they wanted on the Supreme Court with narry a whimper from the Dems. PLAN FOILED.

As for the cloture vote on Brown Owens and Pryor? Harry is an old poker player and my guess is he wouldn't have offered these three (he did cherry pick the judges who would get a floor vote) unless he was fairly certain they will go down, down down. I think they will.

Finally, the BEST thing about it is that they jointly said "NO WAY" to the theocrats. Woo hooo

[Lance Mannion]

I don't know. The more I think about the deal, the more it steams me.

As far as I can see the deal says that the Democrats get to keep the filibuster as long as they promise never to try to use it again.

Meanwhile the rule stays on the books for the day when a Democratic President has a slight majority in the Senate and then has to watch his nominees get filibustered to death.

I don't see how Frist loses. His whole reason for the nuclear option was to get these judges appointed. Now they will be, at no cost to him.

The Republican "moderates" weren't rebelling. They were looking for a way of not having to rebel. They found it. They saved themselves from having to stand up to Frist and now they will all go and vote for the judges the Democrats can't filibuster.

I don't see a silver lining here.

[David Rossie]

Mr. Watson,

I had never heard of your blog before today, but after reading this post and "Hugh Hewitt to Retire," you can bet that I'll be back. Good work!

[Tom W.]

Please Dave - call me Tom! And thanks....

[seamus]

Great analysis. Can't for the Gilliard take.

I disagree with your 2008 prediction, however. While as a centrist Democrat I find McCain an appealing Republican, a lot of people think he's dead meat among primary voters, who will see his willingness to compromise as a character flaw. McCain will have to withstand massive attacks from the right in NH, IA, and SC, and I'd be surprised if he even wants to deal with that again.

[Tony Alva]

Quick thoughts on "The Deal"...

- A compromise is better than any nuke option or actual filibuster

- I'm greatful, as is Bill Martin, that some qualified nom's will get a vote

- I have said it before and will say it again, McCain would make an excellent president and I hope he finds the strength to "deal with it again".

- I don't think this means an end to zealot influence over the GOP, but is a sign that there ARE moderates who are unafraid.

- We need to find a way to eliminate the filibuster by way of super majority vote, or any other method that eliminates this rediculous loop hole.

[Ralph]

Remember W. pretended to be a centrist in the 2000 election. Hell, he even opposed US intervention overseas and "nation building". He said that the US should not be telling other nations how to govern themsleves. Most Americans are in the center. The only reason why Bush won re-election was the lies about Kerry and the emotional appeal of a war president. The next election will be different. I think that whoever is considered the real centrist - who can bring both sides together, will win.

[Tony Alva]

"The next election will be different. I think that whoever is considered the real centrist - who can bring both sides together, will win."

Look at that... Ralph and I agree on something. Cheers Ralph!

[bruce b.]

A blithe statement on Wilson's part. I wonder if he can back it up with any substance.