I've been watching the talking heads very closely over the last 36 hours, and the pro-Kerry conventional wisdom seems to be holding. The consensus remains: Kerry won the debate and looked "Presidential." Bush lost and appeared peevish. But will this translate into a bounce in the polls? Taegan Goddard shows an early indicator this morning on PoliticalWire. A Survey USA poll shows that in 35 key "geographies," Kerry held a strong advantage: In 26 geographies, John Kerry won, in eight geographies, George W. Bush won, and in one geography, the debate was an exact tie. What I'd like to know - and if you've seen new polls let me know - did Kerry build on his pre-debate mini-leads in PA and OH, where his (newly-found) tough anti-war voice had overcome small Bush leads in the last two weeks?
UPDATE: Watching MSNBC's Charles Sabine, reporting from London on U.K. book-makers' odds on the U.S. election. Millions of pounds have been wagered in legal bets. And Ladbroke's - the largest book-maker - has shorted its odds on Kerry-Edwards from 2-1 to 7-4 and lengthened odds on Bush-Cheney, but the incumbents still remain the 2-5 big favorite. As Sabine opined: the book-makers always see the trends first.
